The existing COE durations were chosen somewhat arbitrarily
The existing Vehicle Quota System (VQS) maintains Certificates of Entitlement (COE) that last for 10 years in the first instance, and can be renewed for either 5- or 10-year periods thereafter.[1] At the inception of the VQS, the 10-year duration was chosen because it would align with the existing limit of the Preferential Additional Registration Fee (PARF) rebate.[2] This duration is somewhat arbitrary, although one could argue that, back in 1990, they also broadly aligned with factors driving vehicle turnover, such as safety, efficiency, emissions, and maintenance costs.[3]
COE durations for EVs have logical upper and lower bounds
With new EVs, however, these factors are likely to be dominated by a wholly different consideration: the lifespan of the EV battery. At present, the warranty on EV batteries for most manufacturers is set at 8 years, or 160,000 kilometres.[4] This is consistent with the practice of designating battery end-of-life at 70 percent of their maximum charge.[5] Since the costs of replacing a battery outside of the warranty is prohibitively expensive—around a third of the cost of the actual vehicle[6]—many would consider this an opportune time to replace the car, altogether. We can thus regard 8 years as a reasonable lower bound.
But research suggests that retiring the battery so early severely underutilises it, and given the environmental costs of battery manufacture, undermines the EVs sustainability proposition.[7] Indeed, with reasonable use, EV batteries could last somewhere between 15 to 20 years, before needing replacement.[8] Industry experts tend to place the equivalent mileage at closer to at least 320,000 kilometres, double that of the standard warranty distance.[9] And even if the battery were changed once at 8 years, it would make sense to stretch out the new battery another 8. If so, this would afford an equivalent upper bound that amounts to 16 years.
Indefinite renewals for 8 and 16-year COE
There is much uncertainty over the genuine economic and technical lifespan of an EV. In light of this, the existing practice of the Ministry—which disallows the repeated renewal of shorter-term COEs—should also be eliminated, to preserve maximum flexibility for EV drives to extend the use of an environmentally-friendly car.
The claim that returning short-term COEs into the bidding pool preserves equity between existing and prospective owners of cars[10] has never made much sense to me, since it applies with equal for to longer-term COEs. But insisting on this practice makes even less sense for vehicles that would otherwise endure even longer than the typical ICE equivalents.
In summary, I propose that the Ministry consider a revision in the standard COE duration, to 16 years, especially after 2030 when pure internal combustion engine (ICE) COEs will no longer be issued. For those who desire a shorter term for renewals—much like the present 5-year COE—an 8-year duration would coincide with one battery life cycle.
[1] For vehicles in Cat A, B, and D, the 5-year renewal is only permitted once, before mandatory deregistration. There is no comparable limit for 10-year renewals. Vehicles in Cat C may be renewed any number of times, within the same durations, until the end of its statutory lifespan. See OneMotoring (2024), Certificate of Entitlement (COE) Renewal, Singapore: Land Transport Authority.
[2] Hansard (1990) 54(13): Feb 26.
[3] Yeah, G. (2023), “Why Do COEs Last for Only 10 Years and Could Extending This Bring Down Prices?”, CNA, Nov 9.
[4] Agustinus, T. (2021), “EV Car Ownership: Battery Warranty For Different Brands—Part I,” Motorist, Sep 22.
[5] Etxandi-Santolaya, M., L.C. Casals & C. Corchero (2024), “Extending the Electric Vehicle Battery First Life: Performance Beyond the Current End of Life Threshold,” Heliyon 10(4): e26066.
[6] Witt, J. (2024), “Electric Car Battery Replacement Costs,” Recurrent, Dec 3. This has already fallen substantially since 2020, from about half, and by 2030, it is estimated that the costs might be as low as 15 percent.
[7] Etxandi-Santolaya, M., L.C. Casals, T. Montes & C. Corchero (2023), “Are Electric Vehicle Batteries Being Underused? A Review of Current Practices and Sources of Circularity,” Journal of Environmental Management 338: 117814.
[8] Buchmann, I. (2017), Batteries in a Portable World: A Handbook on Rechargeable Batteries for Non-Engineers, 4th ed., Richmond: Cadex Electronics.
[9] Coltura (2025), How Long Can Electric Car Batteries Last In 2024, Seattle: Coltura.
